Californians move out of state and cut housing bills by $672 a month, UC Berkeley analysis finds
A UC Berkeley California Policy Lab analysis finds that Californians who move out of state save an average of $672 per month on housing and become substantially more likely to own homes within seven years.
Key takeaways
- Californians who leave the state reduce average monthly housing costs from $2,376 to $1,705 — a savings of $672 that includes mortgage or rent, utilities, property taxes and insurance.
- Renters who move out of California see rents fall about 30% (~$631 per month).
- Homeowners moving out encounter median home prices about $396,000 lower — roughly 48% less than the median price they left in California.
- Neighborhoods where departing Californians settle show 60% homeownership versus 53% where they left; seven years after moving, former Californians are ~48% more likely to own.
Study details and methods
The California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley used anonymized administrative data that follows the same households from 2016 through 2025. This longitudinal approach let researchers compare housing costs and homeownership outcomes before and after moves, and to contrast households who left California with those who stayed or moved into the state. The report, “Priced Out: Relocation Amidst California’s Affordability Crisis,” measures monthly housing costs including mortgage or rent, utilities, property taxes and insurance to present a fuller picture of household payments.
Read the study coverage: Fox Business, Realtor.com, and the Policy Lab presentation on YouTube.
How moves affect homeownership
The analysis identifies a clear connection between lower housing costs and increased chances of homeownership. Moving out of California typically places households into neighborhoods that are roughly half as expensive as the ones they left, making buying more attainable.
“That lower price point makes buying a home more attainable,” said California Policy Lab Executive Director Evan White, summarizing why relocation often leads to higher homeownership rates.
In the new communities, 60% of people own their homes, compared with 53% in the California neighborhoods they left. Over time the difference grows: seven years after moving, former Californians are substantially more likely to be homeowners than when they lived in the state (Fox Business, Policy Lab presentation).
Who moves where
Most departures are regional. From 2016–2025 the largest net inflow of former Californians went to Nevada (about 81 more people per 10,000 annually). Idaho, Oregon, and Arizona followed with net gains of roughly 64, 37 and 36 per 10,000, respectively. Farther states saw smaller net gains: Texas netted 11 per 10,000 per year, Tennessee 13, and Florida 4 — suggesting many moves prioritize lower cost and shorter distance (Fox Business).
What happens to people who stay or move into California
Moving within California does not produce the same financial relief. The study found average monthly housing costs for intra-state movers rose slightly from $2,263 to $2,277. Newcomers moving into California experienced a sharper jump: average housing costs rose from $1,754 (in their prior out-of-state neighborhoods) to $2,418 after relocating to California.
Homeownership gains for newcomers were more modest: after seven years, those who moved to California were about 27% (≈6 percentage points) more likely to own a home, compared with larger gains for those who left the state (Fox Business).
Why people leave: cost pressures beyond housing
The Policy Lab ties departures to broader cost pressures. California’s everyday prices exceed national averages: groceries are about 11% higher, gas about 40% higher and utilities about 61% higher than the national average. These higher living costs compound the squeeze of steep housing bills, making relocation financially attractive even when destination incomes are modestly lower (Fox Business).
Local examples and county-level trends
The report highlights county-level shifts. For example, Sacramento County experienced a sizable net outflow (2016–2025): roughly 269,600 people left while 198,500 arrived, a net loss near 71,100 residents — showing migration pressure extends beyond coastal metros (Policy Lab presentation).
Policy responses and solutions suggested
Experts point to supply-side reforms to address California’s affordability crisis: build more homes, streamline approvals, reduce certain fees, and enable denser housing. The proposed changes aim to increase supply, lower development costs, and slow price growth so more residents can afford to stay and buy within the state (Policy Lab presentation, Realtor.com).
Implications for Los Angeles, California
Economic impact
Household budgets: Angelenos weighing a move face the same trade-offs: leaving can free up hundreds of dollars monthly — a meaningful shift for families balancing housing and other bills.
Local business and tax base: Continued outflows of working-age households could reduce local spending and property tax growth, shifting consumption and tax revenue to destination states.
Political consequences
Local politics and priorities: Rising departures may intensify pressure on city and county leaders to speed housing approvals and pursue cost-lowering reforms.
Electoral effects: If younger households and certain owner cohorts leave at higher rates, the electorate’s makeup could shift, affecting long-term debates on housing, transit and social services.
Social effects
Neighborhood change: Middle-income departures could accelerate turnover and change demand for schools, transit and local services.
Housing access: The finding that leaving raises homeownership chances implies relocation may create wealth-building opportunities for movers and widen equity gaps between those who can leave and those who cannot.
Cultural relevance
Community ties: Many Angelenos weigh financial relief against cultural, familial and job-network ties; leaving often represents a trade-off between dollars and community.
Regional identity: Moves to neighboring states may alter how Southern Californians relate to the broader West as migration reshapes cross-state cultural ties.
Practical applications for residents and policymakers
For renters and homeowners: The study provides a benchmark for dollar and ownership impacts of moving. Residents should consider job markets, family ties and total cost of living — not just housing bills.
For local leaders: The Policy Lab analysis reinforces calls to accelerate housing production and reduce development time and cost via streamlined permitting, fee rethinking, and encouraging denser housing near jobs and transit (Policy Lab presentation, Realtor.com).
Reporting notes and sources
This article draws on the California Policy Lab analysis and media coverage. Key sources: Fox Business coverage of the Policy Lab report, Realtor.com’s summary, and the Policy Lab presentation on YouTube. The Policy Lab’s full report is titled “Priced Out: Relocation Amidst California’s Affordability Crisis.”
Sources and further reading: Fox Business • Realtor.com • Policy Lab presentation (YouTube)
