Massachusetts out-migration surges: state lost about 182,000 residents to domestic moves from 2020–2025
Massachusetts lost roughly 182,000 residents to domestic moves from April 2020 through July 2025, a sustained outflow driven by high living costs and competitiveness issues that threatens long‑term economic activity and the prime working‑age workforce.
Key takeaways
- Net domestic out‑migration: ~182,000 residents lost (April 2020–July 2025).
- Latest-year loss: about −33,000 (July 2024–July 2025).
- International migration: record +230,000 (2022–2024), but fell to roughly +40,000 in 2025.
- Jobs and unemployment: private‑sector employment down ~18,000 since Jan 2020; unemployment rose to 4.8% in December.
- Primary drivers: high housing, child care, health care and education costs pushing young adults (ages 26–34) to leave.
Main story
How big is the loss?
Researchers at the Pioneer Institute estimate Massachusetts lost roughly 182,000 residents to moves within the United States from April 2020 through July 2025 — the equivalent of losing about one‑and‑a‑half cities the size of Cambridge in five years. The outflows were strongest among people aged 26 to 34, a demographic critical to the state’s workforce and economic activity.
A trend, not a pandemic spike
Analysts at the Pioneer Institute and the UMass Donahue Institute show the pattern began before the COVID‑19 pandemic and persisted afterward, indicating structural causes — chiefly high living costs and relative competitiveness — rather than a brief pandemic‑driven relocation surge.
International migration temporarily softens the blow
Between 2022 and 2024, international migration added a record +230,000 residents, helping push the labor force higher (Pioneer Institute). But arrivals dropped sharply in 2025, reducing the international offset to about +40,000, according to reporting by the Commonwealth Beacon and Pioneer analysis.
Employment and unemployment: a mixed picture
Despite immigration gains, private‑sector employment in Massachusetts remains below pre‑pandemic levels. The Pioneer Institute reports roughly 18,000 fewer private‑sector jobs (−0.55%) since January 2020, while U.S. private‑sector jobs rose about 5% in the same period.
Unemployment rose to 4.8% in December, up from a low of 3.2% in April 2023, and is higher than neighboring New England states: Connecticut (4.2%), Rhode Island (4.3%), Maine (3.2%), New Hampshire (3.1%) and Vermont (2.6%).
Root causes named
Analysts highlight:
- Housing affordability and limited supply.
- High child care and health care costs.
- Expensive education and other living expenses that squeeze young adults and families.
State planning documents and reporting at Mass.gov note immigrants now make up about one in five workers in Massachusetts, underscoring reliance on international arrivals to staff businesses.
Where are people going?
Data from the UMass Donahue Institute show New England and the Northeast experienced net losses per 1,000 residents, while Southern and Sun Belt states — notably Florida, North Carolina, and Texas — were the main recipients of internal migration gains. Pull factors include lower taxes, cheaper housing, and faster job growth.
What could follow in coming years
Several reports warn that continued high domestic out‑migration combined with lower international arrivals could lead to population stagnation or modest decline. Official state planning outlines a low‑growth scenario that could shrink the population by about 0.4% (~28,000 people) from 2025 to 2035, with potential long‑term impacts on the labor force, tax base, and demand for services (UMDI; Mass.gov).
Implications for Los Angeles, California
Massachusetts’ experience offers lessons for Los Angeles and California on multiple fronts:
- Economic competition: Loss of young tech and biotech talent in Massachusetts may free some workers for other markets but signals national pressure on high‑cost regions.
- Labor and partnerships: Shrinking Massachusetts workforce could affect collaborations with LA firms and universities, altering recruiting and research pipelines.
- Higher education: If graduates leave Massachusetts, LA institutions may see shifting applicant pools and new recruitment opportunities.
- Housing policy lessons: The Massachusetts case highlights how housing shortages and high prices drive migration — a warning for LA officials and developers.
- Federal funding and politics: Population shifts affect federal allocations and competitive grant landscapes that touch California agencies and institutions.
“Losing residents in their prime working years could reduce economic activity for decades,” analysts warn, pointing to the outsized share of 26–34‑year‑olds among those leaving.
Key data points and sources
- Pioneer Institute, “Domestic out‑migration is hollowing out Massachusetts’ workforce and economy” — net domestic out‑migration ~182,000 (Apr 2020–Jul 2025); private‑sector jobs down ~18,000; unemployment trends.
- UMass Donahue Institute, UMDI summary of the U.S. Census Bureau 2025 state population estimates — latest‑year net domestic migration (~Jul 2024–Jul 2025) and state population (~7.15 million, Jun 2025).
- Commonwealth Beacon, “Mass population squeaks to growth but national immigration slowdown reveals cracks” — reporting on international migration slowdown in 2025.
- Mass.gov, “No growth housing needs” — state planning resources and low‑growth scenarios.
Reporting note
Reporting for Times Media Service. All figures and analysis above are drawn from the cited sources; readers can follow the linked reports for full tables, methodology, and state‑level detail.
