WASHINGTON, July 7 (San Diego News Online) — NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says El Niño conditions are present now and are expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27. The agency has issued an El Niño Advisory.
For people and officials planning ahead, the practical step is to keep an eye on NOAA’s seasonal outlooks and local flood and winter-weather forecasts as the season changes. El Niño is not a storm. It is a shift in the ocean-atmosphere system over the tropical Pacific that can tilt the odds for weather patterns far beyond the ocean itself.
What NOAA says now
In its June 11 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said El Niño conditions developed over the prior month. The center said above-average sea surface temperatures spread across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The CPC said its latest weekly Niño-3.4 index was +0.7 degrees Celsius. That index is one of the main ways forecasters track the Pacific’s temperature pattern. The agency also reported the Niño-4 index at +0.7 degrees Celsius and the Niño-1+2 index at +2.1 degrees Celsius.
NOAA said its model guidance, including the North American Multi-Model Ensemble and the NCEP CFSv2 model, points to further strengthening through winter 2026-27.
How strong could it get?
NOAA said there is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January. The CPC said that kind of event could rank among the largest in the historical record going back to 1950.
That does not mean the same conditions will show up everywhere. El Niño changes the odds, not the outcome. Some places may see wetter weather, others drier weather, and the effects can vary from one storm season to the next.
Why it matters
El Niño matters because the tropical Pacific helps steer weather patterns around the globe. NOAA’s Climate.gov explainer says ENSO, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, is the broader climate cycle that includes El Niño and La Niña.
For the U.S., one of the biggest concerns is seasonal change. NOAA’s Ocean Service says an El Niño pattern can raise the risk of high tide flooding in many U.S. locations. That makes the forecast important for coastal planning, even in places far from the Pacific.
What to watch next
The key date window from NOAA is November through January, when the agency says a very strong event is most likely if the warming continues. Forecasters will be watching whether the warm water stays centered in the tropical Pacific and whether the atmosphere keeps responding in the same way.
For readers in Washington, DC, the best takeaway is simple: this is a national weather planning story, not a local emergency. The event may still matter indirectly through winter outlooks, travel planning, and any flood or tide impacts that NOAA and local officials flag later in the season.
If you live in a coastal or flood-prone area, the safest move is to follow NOAA updates and local forecasts now, before the winter pattern fully sets in.